Daily Briefing — 2026-07-11

Generated: 2026-07-11T03:00:03Z

Summary

• US PPI (June) today 15:30 Sofia — 6.3% YoY forecast; hot print risks BTC below EMA20 as Fed stays hawkish
• Iran/Hormuz ceasefire fully collapsed: US struck Iran + revoked oil license, 3 tankers hit — Brent >$77/bbl
• BTC $64,117 (+0.3%), pinned below EMA50 $65,304; ETF rebound fragile after record -$4.06B June outflows

🌍 World

Iran ceasefire collapses: US strikes Iran, revokes oil license, Hormuz near-standstill — Ukraine strikes Russian fleet

• Three commercial tankers struck in the Strait of Hormuz — US launched retaliatory strikes on Iranian targets and simultaneously revoked the June license permitting Iran to legally export its oil, removing the key ceasefire incentive (NBC News) (Washington Times)
• Hormuz shipping traffic remains well below pre-conflict levels — at least one vessel u-turned from the waterway; Iran warning all tankers to use 'approved routes or face forceful response' (Bloomberg) (PBS)
• Russia launched 137 drones on Ukraine overnight Jul 9-10 (114 intercepted); 4 civilians killed in Kramatorsk aerial bomb strike including a 14-year-old (Al Jazeera)
• Ukraine struck 18 Russian vessels overnight (incl. 13 tankers) + Krasnodar oil refinery + Taganrog oil terminal — Russian authorities publicly acknowledged their first gasoline shortage in over two decades (Ukrinform)
• New Ebola cases reported in previously unaffected parts of Congo, signaling spread beyond the Ituri epicenter (NPR)

📊 Trader-relevant

PPI today 15:30 Sofia is the trigger — Iran-driven 6.3% YoY forecast reinforces hawkish Fed; ETF rebound fragile

• 15:30 Sofia (12:30 UTC / 8:30 ET) [HIGH] US PPI June: Core MoM forecast +0.2%, PPI YoY forecast +6.3% — Iran energy shock now embedded in producer prices; a hot print (>+0.3% Core) would reinforce the hawkish FOMC stance (9 dots from June meeting) and push risk assets lower (Trading Economics)
• 15:30 Sofia (12:30 UTC / 8:30 ET) [MEDIUM] Canada Employment Change: forecast +10K jobs, unemployment rate 6.6% — loonie move may affect USD index and indirectly BTC (Trading Economics)
• Upcoming next week: US CPI for June expected Monday July 14 — consensus YoY ~3.9%; that will be the bigger directional catalyst for BTC than today's PPI (BLS Schedule) (Finance Calendar)
• Brent crude ~$77-78/bbl — Iran oil export license revoked + Hormuz near-standstill; Ukraine also striking Russian oil infrastructure simultaneously creating a structural price floor for oil (Energy Connects)
• BTC ETF inflows: $510M over Jul 7-9 ended a 10-day, $2.73B outflow streak — IBIT alone added $209.4M on Jul 7; but analysts explicitly label this 'fragile rebound, not confirmed recovery' — June total was -$4.06B, worst month on record (TechTimes) (Investing.com)
• Empery Digital liquidated 1,400 BTC to fund an AI business pivot and service debt — minor volume but signals continued forced institutional selling pressure (The Block)
• US Crypto Clarity Act back before Congress this week — regulatory framework progress could reduce exchange uncertainty and improve institutional on-ramp sentiment (The Block)

₿ BTC outlook

Pinned between EMA20 ($62,876) and EMA50 ($65,304) — PPI today is the directional trigger; CPI July 14 is the bigger test

Technical picture

• MTF alignment: mixed
• Oscillators: RSI(1D): 53.8 · MACD: bullish
• EMA stack: price above EMA20 ($62,876), below EMA50 ($65,304), well below SMA200 ($73,991)
• Observation: EMA50 ($65,304) and Bollinger upper band ($65,438) form a tight resistance cluster — a daily close above $65,438 would be structurally significant and open the path to $68,500

Analysis

• Price $64,117 is sandwiched in a 1 ATR ($1,987) range: EMA20 support $62,876 below, EMA50 $65,304 + Bollinger upper $65,438 cluster above — the setup has no edge until one of these breaks with volume (TradingView/tvremix)
• MACD bullish cross on 1D (line -292 above signal -901) and 4h timeframe is on a Buy — short-term momentum leans constructive, RSI 53.8 is neutral with room in both directions (TradingView/tvremix)
• 1W timeframe: Sell signal, RSI=39, MACD bearish, ADX=31 (strong trend bearish) — the weekly structure is still bearish; any rally into $65-68K is a macro-distribution zone unless SMA200 ($73,991) comes back in play (TradingView/tvremix)
• Whale accumulation: 270,000 BTC (~$16.7B) bought near $59K over two weeks in early July, mostly long-term holders absorbing ETF sell pressure — Bitfinex analysts call it 'the pattern seen near past cycle lows' (CoinDesk)
• ETF recovery is real but thin: $510M over 3 days vs -$4.06B in June; YTD ETF net flows still -$5.4B — institutional conviction not yet confirmed (Investing.com) (TechTimes)
• Bullish scenario: PPI in-line or soft (+0.2% Core MoM or below) → rate expectations ease, USD softens → BTC breaks $65,304 EMA50 on volume → next target $68,500
• Bearish scenario: PPI hot (>+0.3% Core MoM) or Iran escalation spikes oil further → Fed expectations stay hawkish → BTC loses EMA20 ($62,876) → $61,500 / $60,000 retest
• Base case: Sideways $62,900–$65,300 chop through today; the real directional move more likely triggered by CPI on July 14 — today's PPI is a pre-signal

Macro calendar

• 15:30 Sofia (12:30 UTC / 8:30 ET) [HIGH] US PPI June — Core MoM forecast +0.2%, PPI YoY forecast +6.3%
• 15:30 Sofia (12:30 UTC / 8:30 ET) [MEDIUM] Canada Employment Change — forecast +10K, unemployment 6.6%
• Upcoming Mon July 14: US CPI June — consensus YoY ~3.9% (bigger BTC catalyst)

🤖 AI & tech

UN AI governance framework launched; California deploys Claude state-wide; Chinese models capture 30-46% of US dev API traffic

• UN Global Dialogue on AI Governance (Geneva, Jul 6-7) — 40-expert international scientific panel published its first risk report Jul 1; first global framework discussion on managing AI technology risks (UN News)
• California Gov. Newsom announced the largest US state government AI deployment in history — all state agencies + opt-in cities/counties access Anthropic Claude at 50% discount via shared IT portal (AI Apps)
• CNBC investigation: Chinese AI models account for 30-46% of enterprise API tokens on US developer platforms every week since Feb 8, 2026 — open-source Chinese models are 60-90% cheaper than Anthropic/OpenAI, creating structural pricing pressure on Western AI labs (ZoneTechify)
• Kraken relaunching mobile app with 'agentic trading and advice' as core feature — early signal of AI-native execution entering retail crypto exchanges (The Block)

Tags: Iran-Hormuz-Escalation, US-Strikes-Iran, Oil-License-Revoked, PPI-Today-15:30-Sofia, CPI-July14, BTC-EMA50-Resistance-65304, Bollinger-Upper-65438, ETF-Fragile-Recovery-510M, Whale-Accumulation-270K-BTC, UN-AI-Governance, California-Claude-Deployment, Chinese-AI-30pct-US-Traffic, Ukraine-Strikes-Russian-Fleet, Russia-Fuel-Shortage, MACD-Bullish-Cross-1D

Model: claude-sonnet-4-6 · Tokens: 1144 in / 18884 out