Strategy anatomy
(2)
Anatomy of a Strategy: The Four Pillars
10
/10
Very strong
all
Botty has no fixed strategies — only freely combinable building blocks. Every run = exactly ONE entry + any number of filters + position sizing + any number of exits. This entry explains the four pillars, lists every building block per category (with links to the indicator/concept entries), and shows which entry fits which market regime.
Details
Evaluation Ladder: When Is Something Confirmed, When Refuted?
10
/10
Very strong
cross-cutting
The reading order for every evaluation at Botty: 7 rungs from 'is the effect real?' (significance: CI, t, p_adj) through 'is it big enough?' (bps × frequency ≥ ~5%/year), parameter plateau, time stability (no one-window wonder), selection honesty (PBO < 0.2 + reproduction in 2 sweeps) to Monte Carlo (risk characterization, never validation) and the shuffle test for filters. Rule: stop at the first red rung. Every rung has a documented Botty catch as evidence: divergences died at rung 1, OID at rung 2, the archetypes at rung 4, ema@1d at rung 5. Plus: a uniform verdict vocabulary and the red-flags list.
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Trend Following
(5)
Pullback-to-EMA (Holy Grail)
9
/10
Moderate
intraday to swing
In a strong trend (ADX > 30): wait for a pullback to the EMA-20, then enter on the first continuation candle. Linda Raschke's classic.
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Moving Average Crossover (Golden/Death Cross)
7
/10
Moderate
swing to position
Long when the fast MA crosses above the slow MA (golden cross), short/flat on the inverse cross. Classically 50/200 daily.
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Clenow-Style Diversified Trend Following
6
/10
Strong
position
Systematic trend system across 50+ futures: 50/100 EMA crossover, ATR position sizing to a vol target, equal weighting across uncorrelated markets.
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Time-Series Momentum (TSMOM)
3
/10
Very strong
position
Go long an asset when it has performed positively over the past 1-12 months; short when negative. Robust across 58 futures markets.
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MACD Money Map (3-System MACD)
2
/10
debunked_botty
swing
YouTube strategy (S2HaCa0b-bY): MACD decomposed into 3 'systems' — trend (zero-line bias + crossover + distance rule + delay), reversal (divergence + histogram), confirmation (triple timeframe + price action). Tested at Botty and killed as a single-asset TA curve fit.
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Momentum
(2)
Dual Momentum (GEM)
5
/10
Strong
position
Combines absolute + relative momentum: long the asset with the highest 12-month return, but only if that return > cash/bonds. Otherwise bonds.
Details
Cross-Sectional Momentum
3
/10
Very strong
position
Long the top winners of the last 3-12 months, short the top losers. The largest anomaly in finance research since 1993.
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Breakout
(2)
Donchian Channel Breakout (Turtle Trading)
8
/10
Strong
position
Long on a breakout above the 20/55-day high, short on a breakout below the 20/55-day low. ATR-based position sizing. Richard Dennis' original system.
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Opening Range Breakout (ORB)
4
/10
Moderate
intraday
Intraday setup: the range of the first 15-30 minutes after the open defines breakout levels. Long on a break to the upside, short to the downside.
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Mean Reversion
(2)
Bollinger Band Mean Reversion
6
/10
Moderate
swing
Long when price closes below the lower band + returns back inside; exit at the middle band (20-SMA). Volatility-scaled.
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RSI-2 Mean Reversion (Connors)
5
/10
Strong
swing
In an uptrend (price > 200-MA): go long when RSI-2 < 10, exit when the close rises above the 5-day MA. Very high win rate, short trades.
Details
Market Neutral
(3)
Funding Rate Arbitrage (Delta-Neutral)
8
/10
Very strong
weeks to months
Spot long + perp short of equal size. Collects positive funding payments with zero directional risk. Typically 5-20% APY, seasonally up to 30%+.
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Pairs Trading / Statistical Arbitrage
7
/10
Strong
swing
Two cointegrated assets: long the undervalued one, short the overvalued one. Profit from mean reversion of the spread. Market-neutral.
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Cash-and-Carry / Basis Trade
6
/10
Very strong
weeks to months
Spot long + dated future short with a fixed maturity. Locks in the annualized basis. Typically 5-20% APY on BTC quarterly futures.
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Market Making
(2)
Grid Trading
4
/10
Moderate
continuous
Places buy/sell orders at fixed intervals within a price range. Profits from volatility without a directional view. Ideal in sideways markets.
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Market Making
3
/10
Very strong
continuous
Quote the bid-ask spread on both sides of the order book. Profit from spread capture; risk from inventory and adverse selection.
Details